Having it made past the preliminary round of the group phase at the Paris 2024 Olympics men’s basketball discipline, it strikes us as just as good a time as any to draw some initial reflections on what has gone down hitherto on French hardwood floor. Of the initial crop of twelve qualified countries, only eight are left. Spain, Japan, South Sudan, and Puerto Rico all have already boarded their respective flights home. With only one somewhat unconvincing win against a surprising Greece—ironically qualified for the knockout stages as one of two best thirds of the group phase—Spain is the obvious disappointment at this point in the tournament. While certainly no longer the global basketball powerhouse it once was during the past two decades, the Iberians bid adieu to the 2024 Summer Olympics with a lukewarm 1-2 record, and the second lowest amount of points scored amongst already eliminated nations.

Conversely, youngest country on the block South Sudan can be proud of the fluid and defiant ballin’ performance they showcased in Lille—netting a high scoring 3-game run (261 points made, the fifth best overall), peppered with relative low-margin losses against Gold medal favorites USA (103-86) and Serbia, the reigning Silver medalists at the 2023 FIBA World Cub (96-85). Generally, the shorter quarter clock limitations and spatial constraints of FIBA courts compared to the NBA’s have kept overall game scores between a moderate range—with a low of 66 (set by Brazil against France) and a high of 110 in the impressive US Basketball team’s debut against Serbia. What’s more, as many as eleven games out of a total of eighteen within the preliminary round ended with a scoring margin smaller than a twelve point-differential; just three games had a score spread higher than twenty points at the final buzzer. This is well-fought balling.

With four nations represented in the quarter-finals—Germany, Greece, France, and Serbia—Europe funnels into the knockout rounds with the most teams still in the race, followed by North America (USA and Canada), as well as South America and Oceania with one country each; Brazil and Australia, respectively. Reigning World Champions Germany and Tokyo 2020 winners USA have so far emerged as distinct favorites to snatch the most precious metal by quite a margin, playing the most spotless and dominant basketball of the bunch. Considering how the knockout rounds bracket locked in, one shouldn’t be surprised to find them tête-à-tête in the grand finale this coming Saturday 10th August. The Germans will go at length to honor their World Champion title, and surely are thirsty for revenge after the close game verdict of their spectacular exhibition game in London on 22nd July (88-92), leading up to the Summer Olympics kickoff.

The US-German folie à deux is followed a few miles behind by the ever promising young guard of Canada—third ranked at the latest FIBA 2023 World Cup in the Philippines, Japan, and Indonesia—yet perhaps a tad bit inconsistent throughout its three group wins. Granted, it got the job done and then some, but paradoxically each of its victories not only came by virtue a thin margin, but also highlighted concerning game lapses that could cost them dearly in a more unforgiving prize fight situation. Tournament host France is going to prove a hostile and arduous opponent for the Gilgeous-Alexander-led contingent, incidentally rounding up the cluster of suitable winners at this point into the competition, alongside Serbia. Australia, Greece, and especially Brazil all seem too flawed and talentless to aspire to make it all the way to Gold.

To go out on a limb, our premature prediction sees Germany cruise somewhat comfortably over Greece on the upper left corner of the bracket, only to meet a debilitated Canada having needed to move heaven and earth to knockout home country darlings France, in what might be the biggest upset of the elimination rounds. On the right hand side of the bracket, we reckon the Serbians will come away victorious over a disgruntled and downcast Australia, with an obviously rested and made up USA awaiting them in the semifinals on Thursday 8th August. On Saturday, before USA and Germany will face off at 9:30p CET in the prize fight and a revenge of their contested friendly match up a few weeks prior, Canada will probably huff and puff through multiple hounds of hell to deservedly repeat their bronze accolade from last year’s World Cup, edging off a worthy opponent in current NBA regular season MVP Jokić’s Serbia.

At the summit, it’ll be the shovel and lunch pail team spirit of Germany versus the indomitable talent of the American Dream Team—we’re tilting savagely on our limb, but we’ll co-opt an infamous Gary Lineker soccer quote to adorn our Gold medal prediction: “[Basketball] is a simple game: [ten] men chase a ball for [40] minutes and at the end, the Germans always win”.

We’d like to thank you sincerely for taking the time to read this and we hope to feel your interest again next time.

AV